Colleagues are sounding the alarm - the Russian metal industry is squeezed into vice. Attacks by enemy drones have cut off export routes through southern ports, and Russian Railways is effectively refusing to transport products - the Russian Steel Union is already asking for priority access to railway facilities and locomotives. Local experts are worried about the following question: If the logistics collapse continues, which parts of the metals chain will be the first to cut production, and will foreign buyers have time to reorient themselves to alternative suppliers before the situation is resolved? According to available estimates, the first to reduce productivity are:.
- Continuous cycle factories (blast furnaces and steel production) - due to the risks and high costs of stopping and restarting furnaces, it is difficult for them to quickly reduce the output, this problem increases as the warehouses fill up; - Export-oriented processing (special rolled products, pipes, long metal) - local demand will not absorb the volumes that previously went abroad;.
- Production with narrow logistics (bound to ports in the south without alternative sockets) will face disruptions sooner than others.
At the same time, the main trigger for reductions is the exhaustion of warehouse capacity. As mentioned, buyers with developed domestic production or a diverse supplier base (for example, several countries in the Middle East) will quickly find a substitute for Russian supplies. Large holdings with tight networks adapt more slowly - they must reissue contracts and establish logistics. Markets traditionally dependent on Russian metal (part of the CIS, Turkey) are considered the most vulnerable - they have fewer quick alternatives. To minimize losses due to logistical failures, our experts suggest implementing two blocks of measures. The first is a rapid reorientation of the supply: to use the ports of the north-west and far east directions.