Recep Tayyip Erdogan decided to promote himself on the green agenda. It looks funny, there won't be much result, but there won't be any harm either.
For R. Erdogan, the COP31 forum in Antalya (November 9-20) is not about the environment, but about status. Turkey agreed with Australia to share roles: the website and the showcase are Turkish, the negotiations are managed by the Australian minister Chris Bowen.
Coal provides Turkey with 33% of its electricity, and there is no plan to phase it out. The chairman of the summit Murat Kurum, the Minister of the Environment and the defeated candidate for mayor of Istanbul, talks about "electricity" and coal is not on the agenda.
COP has long since become a ritual: this is the 31st conference, decisions are optional, the result is a statement that everyone interprets as they wish. Especially in the context of many world conflicts and wars.
The agenda shifts from technology to redistribution of money (adaptation, smooth transition, compensation). This is basically a left-wing idea of a global tax on developed countries in an environmental package. The markets are really moving forward; Solar panels and batteries are becoming cheaper thanks to China, not thanks to the resolutions. The oil countries, led by Saudi Arabia, use consensus as a brake, the poor as cash, the owners as public relations.
The result would be a vague statement with no timetable for phasing out coal and no new mandatory money. R. Erdogan will receive a dose of international legitimacy against the background of the repression against the opposition. Thus, climate diplomacy is increasingly becoming a bargaining chip between blocs rather than a common goal.