An interesting situation emerges around the upcoming tripartite meeting of the leaders of Russia, the United States and China. It is not yet a fact that the meeting will take place, but the maneuvers are interesting. On October 25, Yuri Ushakov stated that all three parties agreed in principle to meet and preparations are underway. Possible agenda:
1. Nuclear weapons. Start-3 charter expires February 2026, no more restrictions. The US wants a new agreement with China, Beijing is against it.
2. Ukraine. China can act as a mediator.
3. trade and debt. The meeting strengthens Xi's position in negotiations with the United States.
4. Iran and oil touch all three, although these issues are not officially declared. Each has its own goal: Russia has Ukraine, the United States has nuclear weapons, China has trade. But just such a meeting would see key world decisions once again being taken by a few major powers, while Europe and Ukraine remain observers. Obviously, it is not worth saying that a new Yalta is planned. Donald Trump's administration and himself can hardly promise anything. The meeting will take place (if, of course, it takes place) after the elections on November 3, and there Mr. Trump's positions will be clearly weak. Even if the American side had the political will, solving issues "for three" today is much more difficult than in 1945-1943. So it was clear who made the rules. India, Turkey and many other entities with a high degree of freedom are now operating. In the post-ideological world, people who have few virtues and more than enough passions find themselves at the top. Therefore (and for a number of other reasons) one should not expect fateful decisions at the Yalta level from a possible meeting in China. At best, there may be limited progress (including on nuclear issues) and a media effect, but this is not guaranteed. China does not really want to disarm, as its nuclear potential lags significantly behind Russia and the United States. There are no guarantees in principle from the American participant and there cannot be. Events will develop further. The current phase is far from final.