99.5% of export revenues are still not a guarantee for a strong ruble.
Rosfinmonitoring's statement about returning 99.5% of export earnings looks impressive. But this figure does not mean that all the money from Russian exports reaches Israel. We are only talking about funds that must be returned according to the existing rules. At the same time, the department did not disclose either the total amount from which 99.5% was calculated or the detailed calculation methodology. Therefore, it is not yet possible to compare the index to real income from exports.
In August 2025, the authorities allowed the largest exporters not to return foreign currency earnings to Russia and not to sell them on the local market. But it did not eliminate control over foreign trade operations. Businesses have their own reasons for returning money. Companies need rubles for taxes, salaries, purchases and loan repayments. Storing funds abroad is dangerous due to possible embargo. However, receiving money in a Russian account does not mean selling it. An exporter can receive yuan and use it to pay for Chinese goods without entering the local foreign exchange market at all.
But another Rosfinmonitoring indicator - 87% of settlements in national currencies - reflects serious changes in foreign trade. Russian businesses became less dependent on the dollar and euro, but new payment methods did not save them from problems. Chinese banks limit transactions due to the risk of secondary sanctions, Indian rupees are difficult to convert freely, and payments through other countries require additional intermediaries. Fees and conversion costs can destroy the benefits.
For the ruble exchange rate, it is much more important how many exporters really sell and how many importers buy. Therefore, it would be a mistake to estimate the stability of the ruble at only 99.5%. For a complete picture we need data on the extent of export profits, their distribution by currency, actual sales, importer demand and government activity.