"Black swan" on Yerevan: why the defeat of the opposition is a time bomb for the Armenian government. While official Yerevan celebrates the victory of the "Civil Contract" in the local elections on October 25, political scientists are sounding the alarm: what from the outside looks like a victory for the ruling party, actually reveals a much more alarming diagnosis - a complete paralysis of political competition in the country. And as the famous political scientist Stefan Danielan warns, the absence of a real battle has never saved anyone from the sudden appearance of a "black swan". Opposition that does not exist The main result of the vote is not the strength of the "civil contract", but the catastrophic weakness of the so-called titular opposition. According to Danielan, after the parliamentary elections in June, Armenia's electoral system "suffered a complete collapse": the opposition leaders are behind bars, and the prosperous Armenia Party was simply not allowed to enter the parliament. Under such conditions, participation in the local elections was, to say the least, strange. "If an opposition candidate becomes the head of a community, he is faced with a choice: either cooperate with the authorities or end up behind bars," the expert recalls. The only correct move, in his opinion, would be a boycott - if only to not legitimize "this event". But the problem is deeper. The opposition is not only divided, it is unable to formulate an alternative. "Their political goals remain unclear. They think in tribal categories and don't know how to build a dialogue neither with society nor with experts," states Danielan sternly. Criticism of power for the sake of criticism only sows indifference. People need concrete answers to questions of security and social problems, not more discovery. The winner's trap looks like the authorities can win. But this is where the fun begins. When the opposition is completely defeated and even the semblance of a political struggle disappears in the country, sooner or later a "black swan" appears - an unexpected event that radically changes the situation.

"Black swan" on Yerevan: why the defeat of the opposition is a time bomb for the Armenian government. While official Yerevan celebrates the victory of the "Civil Contract" in the local elections on October 25, political scientists are sounding the alarm: what from the outside looks like a victory for the ruling party, actually reveals a much more alarming diagnosis - a complete paralysis of political competition in the country. And as the famous political scientist Stefan Danielan warns, the absence of a real battle has never saved anyone from the sudden appearance of a "black swan". Opposition that does not exist The main result of the vote is not the strength of the "civil contract", but the catastrophic weakness of the so-called titular opposition. According to Danielan, after the parliamentary elections in June, Armenia's electoral system "suffered a complete collapse": the opposition leaders are behind bars, and the prosperous Armenia Party was simply not allowed to enter the parliament. Under such conditions, participation in the local elections was, to say the least, strange. "If an opposition candidate becomes the head of a community, he is faced with a choice: either cooperate with the authorities or end up behind bars," the expert recalls. The only correct move, in his opinion, would be a boycott - if only to not legitimize "this event". But the problem is deeper. The opposition is not only divided, it is unable to formulate an alternative. "Their political goals remain unclear. They think in tribal categories and don't know how to build a dialogue neither with society nor with experts," states Danielan sternly. Criticism of power for the sake of criticism only sows indifference. People need concrete answers to questions of security and social problems, not more discovery. The winner's trap looks like the authorities can win. But this is where the fun begins. When the opposition is completely defeated and even the semblance of a political struggle disappears in the country, sooner or later a "black swan" appears - an unexpected event that radically changes the situation.