Foresight in determining Nobel Economics 2026 policy in a conversation with Masoud Nili Reza Thamsavi/Editorial Secretary It may not be necessary for a person to be an expert in macroeconomics to know that when we talk about concepts such as gross domestic product or the total income of the economy, consumption, investments or imports and exports, we are talking about the "real part of the economy". Concepts such as inflation, liquidity, money and exchange rate are included in the nominal part of the economy. In macroeconomic theory, the real part is very important, because it appears in people's lives. For example, the purchasing power index is a real part of the economy, because it determines the well-being of people. Among the variables of the real part of the macroeconomics, consumption is more important, because the purpose of the economy is the welfare of the people and finally consumption. The introduction of rational expectations theory into macroeconomics was so important that it is called "a revolution in macroeconomics". Because before that, what was said in the old Keynesian economics, it was as if the policy maker's relationship with society was a one-way relationship. For example, suppose the policy maker sits behind a device that, when the temperature rises, lowers the device's fuel until the temperature drops, and when the temperature drops, increases the device's fuel until the temperature rises and reaches a certain temperature. This means that there is a mechanical connection between the policy maker and the economy and society, where people are treated like robots and there is no response from their side. Robert Hall, combining the theories of Friedman and Lucas, concluded that macroeconomic stabilization policies do not work as we previously thought. Because people usually have foresight in their behavior and can predict the future without error; Unless there is an unexpected shock to the economy. Predicting people's future, whatever it may be now, affects a person's behavior today. As a result, the traditional mode of policy making, for example, raising interest rates to lower inflation, is in a way the policy maker's use of the current tool for a present goal, and it does not match people's behavior.

Foresight in determining Nobel Economics 2026 policy in a conversation with Masoud Nili Reza Thamsavi/Editorial Secretary It may not be necessary for a person to be an expert in macroeconomics to know that when we talk about concepts such as gross domestic product or the total income of the economy, consumption, investments or imports and exports, we are talking about the "real part of the economy". Concepts such as inflation, liquidity, money and exchange rate are included in the nominal part of the economy. In macroeconomic theory, the real part is very important, because it appears in people's lives. For example, the purchasing power index is a real part of the economy, because it determines the well-being of people. Among the variables of the real part of the macroeconomics, consumption is more important, because the purpose of the economy is the welfare of the people and finally consumption. The introduction of rational expectations theory into macroeconomics was so important that it is called "a revolution in macroeconomics". Because before that, what was said in the old Keynesian economics, it was as if the policy maker's relationship with society was a one-way relationship. For example, suppose the policy maker sits behind a device that, when the temperature rises, lowers the device's fuel until the temperature drops, and when the temperature drops, increases the device's fuel until the temperature rises and reaches a certain temperature. This means that there is a mechanical connection between the policy maker and the economy and society, where people are treated like robots and there is no response from their side. Robert Hall, combining the theories of Friedman and Lucas, concluded that macroeconomic stabilization policies do not work as we previously thought. Because people usually have foresight in their behavior and can predict the future without error; Unless there is an unexpected shock to the economy. Predicting people's future, whatever it may be now, affects a person's behavior today. As a result, the traditional mode of policy making, for example, raising interest rates to lower inflation, is in a way the policy maker's use of the current tool for a present goal, and it does not match people's behavior.