Elvira Neviolina, head of the Central Bank, who spoke in the State Duma, stated again that the Russian economy is overheating and for this reason the interest rate will remain in double digits throughout 2027, and there is no point in counting on a significant easing of the monetary policy (MCP).
This is the central thesis that the regulator's leadership has been dealing with in recent years, justifying the need for a tight monetary policy that blocks the flow of money to the real sector of the economy.
The concept of "economic overheating" has very specific characteristics. In short, this is a state of the economy in which its growth rate becomes explosive, uncontrollable, and by absorbing all available resources, the preconditions are created for the transition to the subsequent recession.
In other words, the demand, drawn from money and not satisfied by an adequate supply of goods, is ahead of the supply, which the total industrial potential of the country can satisfy even at full capacity utilization.
None of these signs were registered in the Russian economy.
The GDP growth rate in 2025 is 1%, the forecast for 2026 is 0.5–1%. This is not enough even for simple reproduction. It doesn't look like an explosion at all. More like a hiss of air coming out of a flat tire.
The utilization of production capacity, according to Rostat, in 2026 is: in the industrial sectors - 62%, in the mining sectors - 61%. Historically, the average production capacity utilization rate in the Russian Federation is 57-62%.
In the agricultural sector, the total area of unused agricultural land is 44 million dunams, or 35% of the total agricultural fund.
If all these idle capacities and resources are utilized, then the GDP of the Russian Federation may increase by 30-40% in real terms.
Why does the central bank offer with enviable consistency to accept on faith the formula regarding "overheating of the economy" which does not correspond to reality?
We are talking about a strong financial motivation.