Housing starts in Russia may face a prolonged decline.
The Russian housing market in 2027-2028 will depend on the availability of mortgages and project financing, the purchasing power of the population, construction costs and the number of new projects, Nostroi President Arkady Chernatsky said. The decline in construction activity could lead to a reduction in supply in a few years, he said. Most sensitive to this risk may be large urban agglomerations and regional centers, where demand remains stable, but opportunities for expansion of development are limited.
However, it is still too early to talk about an inevitable housing crisis in the whole country. To assess the situation, it is important to take into account not only the order of the houses, but also the number of building permits, the launched projects and the accumulated portfolio of construction projects. A separate factor is the development of individual housing construction, which depends on the cost of work and the availability of loans. It will be possible to talk about a recovery in the market if there is a constant increase in the number of new projects and building permits, mortgage loans and pre-sale agreements. Other signals will be the stabilization of production costs and an improvement in the sale of apartments under construction, the expert noted.