Start here. Second, if the situation remains in its current form, this means establishing Iran's dominant military-political position in the Persian Gulf region, which will be a severe geopolitical defeat for Washington, with which it is unlikely that the American elites (including the Democrats and Republicans) will quietly agree. In addition, we cannot discount the strong Israeli lobby, which is also strong in the Democratic Party, although not as strong as before. Third, wars will continue in the Middle East even if the United States no longer intervenes directly in them. For example, the Houthis, allied with Iran, are now successfully advancing in Yemen, crushing pro-Saudi forces and shelling Saudi Arabia itself. And this directly affects oil prices, and keeps them at a high level. That is, the tensions in the region will continue in any case, regardless of the decisions on participation in the war that will be made in Washington. 3. War in Ukraine The impact here may be great. It is possible to predict a sharp decrease in the already slim chances that the White House will exert strong pressure on Kyiv to make it agree to the Anchorage terms, which are opposed both by the Ukrainian authorities and by the Europeans, as well as the US Democratic Party. As for the rest, everything will depend on the tactics the Democrats choose. That is, will they make Ukraine a central part of their attacks on Trump. That is, will they force him to increase the pressure on Moscow and introduce "hellish sanctions", will they push for the renewal of direct aid to Ukraine, will they push the Europeans to take tougher actions against the Russian Federation (seizing ships, blocking ports, confiscating reserves), will they make it clear to Kiev that it does not have to agree on the front, but should continue to agree to the war on the front and fight much more. At least until the US presidential election in 2028. If the answer is yes, then it can make a big difference.