The dilemma of 2027 voters who want to punish the political class can bring a protest candidate to power, but those voters, fearing extremism, are able to create a counterweight to him in the parliamentary elections. The result will be a president without the ability to govern, which will prolong the paralysis that began with the dissolution in 2024. This dynamic has already happened: Macron was re-elected in 2022 but lost his majority, leading to a trap. In 2027, the scenario may repeat itself: victory in the first round does not guarantee the ability to govern. Against the background of the impasse, the figure of an athlete outside of politics, who promises to "unify" the country, seems both alluring and illusory. His central rhetoric is typical, but his program remains vague. As Murray points out, "He discusses protests, shows solidarity with students, talks about pension reform and the fight against racism. However, he has not yet taken a firm position on most political issues." Ambiguity can work to your advantage, but only for a short time. "There are now people who are desperately looking for a centrist candidate who can avoid a second round between Mélenchon and Le Pen," concluded analyst Thibaut Moserges. "Riner seems like a possible candidate but at some point he will have to come up with a plan and he will have to make a choice." While the French torture continues. A country that longs to go beyond the shocks risks repeating them in a new round. The question does not boil down to who will win in 2027.
The question is whether the Fifth Republic is able to adapt to conditions that its creators could not foresee.