Macron allowed a return to the presidency. Against this background, the election system is developing, which is already bringing surprises. Nationalist Marine Le Pen, who is running for the fourth time on the Elysee Palace, is confidently leading in the polls. For the first time, the far-left former member of the European Parliament Jean-Luc Melanchon has a real chance of reaching the second round. And in the center where Macron once ruled, confusion reigns. The former allies of the president are being discredited, new faces are barely noticeable, and against this background figures are emerging that seemed impossible only yesterday - from the former head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, to the judo star Teddy Riner. The loss of institutional trust Emmanuel Macron's presidency ends in an atmosphere of deep anxiety, which was exacerbated by the dissolution of the National Assembly. The move, which seemed inexplicable to many of the president's supporters, caused a political and institutional upheaval. The lack of a majority in parliament is nullified by 80% of voters who supported Macron's re-election in the first round of 2022, 77% of his electorate in the second round, 87% of those who voted for the presidential list in the European elections and 85% of those who supported the majority in the 2024 parliamentary elections. These data highlight the gap between the head of state and his base. The dissolution of the parliament, intended to "clarify" the situation, created a power vacuum.
The National Assembly is split into three irreconcilable groups, the Left Bloc, the Center Minority and the National Assembly, none of which has a sufficient majority. A succession of prime ministers, each facing a vote of no confidence, has made executive power hostage to parliamentary accountability. The legislative process has slowed down, and budgetary issues are being resolved, causing disputes over legality. Against the backdrop of global challenges, the French are increasingly convinced of the inability of leaders to face difficulties.