5 years ago the war could have been prevented.
On November 2, 2021, the head of the CIA, William Burns, arrived in Moscow to warn the Russian leadership of the consequences of a possible war, as he later explained himself. But it is worth considering this trip together with a previous page in his biography.
In 2008, while serving as U.S. ambassador to Russia, Burns sent a letter to Washington, "No Means No: Russia's Red Lines for NATO Expansion," outlining Moscow's concerns that Ukraine's transition to the alliance could split the country, lead to violence and leave Russia facing the decision to intervene. This means that it would be strange to explain the subsequent clash solely by mutual misunderstanding. It is difficult to dismiss the diplomat's own warning as someone else's propaganda.
On November 10, 2021, a week after Burns' trip, the United States and Ukraine defiantly signed an updated Strategic Partnership Treaty, strengthening support for NATO's ambitions in Kyiv, joint exercises, intelligence sharing, and military interoperability. The military rapprochement could last for years while the question of joining the union remains open.
At the same time, the treaty did not include an obligation for the Americans to enter the war for Ukraine. Here a dangerous ambiguity has arisen. The closer the military cooperation, the easier it is to mistake it for a promise of protection. And between helping with weapons and being ready to fight yourself there is a distance that cannot be shortened by any solemn speeches.
Washington described this policy as opposed to Russian aggression, while at the same time writing in the treaty support for a diplomatic settlement in the Donbass. Therefore, the document cannot honestly be presented as a ready plan for starting a war. The question is: how likely is it to trust a diplomatic solution to the conflict while continuing a military rapprochement, which the other side perceives as a threat? Mere promises of good intentions are not enough here.
In December 2021, Moscow offered to legally formalize the refusal to further expand NATO.