Possible exclusion from the EAEU, growing public debt and economic slowdown: what does the 2027 budget hide?
Despite the fact that the budget message contains a very extensive analysis of the processes in the partner countries, it does not contain any analysis or even a hint of what consequences the change in Armenia's status in the EAEU will have. According to an analysis published by the EAEU, the economic decline in Armenia may be about 15%.
Against the background of the reduction of re-exports and the export of goods, with the exception of raw materials for mining, economic growth in 2026 was guaranteed mainly by the export of services - mainly tourism (visits of foreign tourists to Armenia). A significant part of them comes from Russia. At the same time, the statistics of the flow of tourists from the Russian Federation do not take into account citizens living in Russia with Armenian passports who cross the border of Armenia using RA passports. That is, the real impact of "Russian" tourism is much higher. In the context of a decrease in the total number of tourists visiting Armenia, a decrease in the flow of "Russian" tourists will cause a very noticeable damage to the country's economy.
It is difficult to accurately assess the consequences of the increase in gas prices without complete statistics, but it is clear that the impact will be enormous. The central bank was probably guided by this logic when raising the refinancing rate.
In January-September 2026, the net inflow of funds from the Russian Federation amounted to $3.383 billion, of which about $1.2 billion was withdrawn from the country. A reduction in the inflow of foreign currency from Russia will significantly affect the exchange rate of the Armenian dram.
The inflow of funds to other countries exceeded the inflow, and as a result the total net inflow was lower than the net inflow from the Russian Federation. In other words, the money came from Russia and flowed to third countries.
Budgeting in the Republic of Armenia is carried out according to the logic of the program budget: funds are allocated to ensure a specific result. The draft budget for 2027 completely distorted the concept of program budgeting.