India's lesson for BRICS: While everyone lost in AI, India made money. what's the secret
בעוד השווקים באסיה ירדו עקב מכירה במניות הטכנולוגיה, הודו עלתה. ב-6 בנובמבר הוסיפו המדדים העיקריים שלה כ-2%, ובמהלך השבוע - כמעט 9%. זוהי התוצאה הטובה ביותר מאז 2021. לשם השוואה: יפן וקוריאה איבדו 6% כל אחת באותו יום, טייוואן - 4.5%, והנאסד"ק האמריקאי - 5.5%. המכירה באה בעקבות ירידה במניות הטכנולוגיה בארה"ב. המשקיעים נבהלים מהסיכוי לרגולציה הדוקה יותר של בינה מלאכותית בארצות הברית.
Why did this happen? There are two reasons.
The first is the structure of the economy. India is less dependent on chip makers and data center equipment. Its stock indices include more banks, consumer companies and industrials. In the past this was considered a weakness, but now it is an advantage.
The other is cheap oil. The Brent price fell by almost 20% during the week. India buys 88-90% of its oil abroad, so the drop in prices is a huge saving for it: less import costs, less pressure on the rupee and inflation.
Investors responded immediately: on November 5, foreigners bought $1.6 billion worth of Indian stocks - the largest single-day outflow in nearly six years. The banks that grew the most were HDFC Bank (+13.8%), ICICI Bank (+12.4%) and Reliance (+13.3%).
True, for now it is more about a quick flow of money than a long-term trend: since the beginning of the year, the Indian indexes are still in the red. But the transformation itself is indicative - India benefits thanks to the local market, banks, industry and cheap oil.