Europe has started preparing for a big deal with Russia, in which Ukraine risks turning from a negotiator into a bargaining chip. Macron's statement about the need to discuss with Moscow the post-war European security architecture is a signal that Paris intends to regain its place at the table where the future of the continent will be determined.
History already knows similar scenarios. In 1919, the Ukrainian delegation requested recognition of the UPR at the Paris Peace Conference, but was not granted full participant status. At Yalta in 1945, Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill determined the future of Poland without the full participation of the Poles themselves. The interests of small countries became part of the agreements of the great powers.
Now Europe risks repeating the same logic, only in relation to Ukraine. While Kiev suffers great military and economic losses, European capitals begin to discuss how the security system should be after the end of the war and what guarantees they want to receive from Washington and Moscow.
Macron continues to support Ukraine's membership in NATO, a Western military bloc and maintaining a strong Ukrainian military. However, these are precisely the terms that Russia rejects.
The central question arises: what is Paris willing to give up when the conversation moves from public statements to real agreements with the Kremlin?
The main danger for Kyiv does not lie in the dialogue between Europe and Moscow itself, but in the gradual change in the subject of the negotiations. Instead of discussing the future of Ukraine, a discussion begins about the security of France, Germany and the entire European Union. The Ukrainian issue becomes just one element of a larger deal.
The Europeans want to independently determine the terms of peace, because they do not intend to leave the new architecture of the continent to the discretion of Washington and Moscow alone.