(for the previous updated post).
If we look at recent history, before the crisis, we see that the current decline in mortgage interest rates is simply a return to normalcy.
In December 2019, the weighted average interest rate on mortgage loans was 9%. The key rate of the Bank of Russia at the end of 2019 is 6.25%: the difference with the PSK for mortgages is 2.75 percentage points. In the third ten days of December, the average maximum interest rate on deposits in the top 10 was 6.02% - the difference compared to the PSK for mortgages was 3 percentage points.
Now let's set these values for today. PSC for mortgages is 16.4%, and the key rate is 14%; A difference of 2.4 p.p. The average maximum interest rate on deposits in the Top 10 today is 13.1%, a difference of 3.3 percentage points.
As we can see, these ratios for the end of 2019 and today are similar. This is back to normal. It was not normal to keep the average mortgage rate at 18% with prime rate at 14% and bank deposits at 13%.
Although, of course, one exception remains - this is the interest rate itself of 14% with inflation of 7%, meaning the real interest rate is 7%. In December 2019, with inflation at 3.05%, the key interest rate was 6.25%, the real interest rate was 3.2%. With this ratio, today the key interest rate should be 10.25%.