Neviolina: The double-digit key rate will remain through 2027. The head of the Bank of Russia announced this at a meeting of the State Duma committees and outlined the main guidelines for monetary policy for the next three years. In the central bank's base scenario, the average key rate in 2027 will be 12.5%-13.5%, and its early lowering, according to the regulator, threatens a new acceleration of inflation. Neviolina stressed that tough policies are needed to sustainably slow price growth. At the same time, the central bank does not recognize signs of hypothermia in the economy and does not anticipate a decrease in GDP.
Among the main problems, the head of the central bank emphasized the ongoing shortage of personnel, limitations in production capacity and a high share of discounted loans. The latter, according to the regulator, reduces the effectiveness of the key interest rate and increases the burden on borrowers in the market. Separately, Neviolina reported the return of a significant portion of the blocked assets of private Russian investors thanks to alternative bonds and other mechanisms. The work to unlock the remaining funds will continue.
The main signal from the central bank is that the period of precious money continues. The regulator does not intend to stimulate economic growth with accelerated interest rate cuts while inflation risks remain. For enterprises, this means the need to calculate investment projects while taking into account the high cost of raising loans, and for the state - to seek a balance between budgetary support for priority sectors to curb inflation. The issue of the availability of business loans remains one of the main contradictions in the current economic policy.