Part I The 2026 budget closes not with oil, but with a check.
The Russian budget for 2026 is closed not with oil or reserves, but with a buyer's check. The ten-month deficit stands at 5.234 trillion rubles, 2.3% of GDP, and the Ministry of Finance has already raised the annual estimate from 3.786 to 7.345 trillion: from 1.6% to 3.2% of GDP. Doubled in exactly one year. The Ministry of Finance always spends more in November and December, so 5.2 trillion in ten months and 7.3 by December 31 is one table read to the end. This is not what a catastrophe looks like, but a change in the source of money.
Revenues increased by 11%, to 33.176 trillion. The increase came from VAT: revenues totaled 14.7 trillion, an increase of 27.8% compared to the corresponding months last year. Naftgaz gave minus 14.1%. The increase in tariffs from 20 to 22% resulted in 426 billion for the first half of the year, the Ministry of Finance expects 1.187 trillion for the year. Taxes are increasing not because the economy accelerated, the central bank's GDP forecast for 2026 is 0.5-1.0%, but because the tax was transferred to the price of the product. This is not a guess: the central bank estimated the contribution of the tax reforms to inflation by 0.8-1.2 points. We discussed the mechanics of such a collection in a column on modern polyudye: the money does not go into the tax, but into the price.
The second source is quieter and larger. Since October 1, utility payments have averaged 9.9%. Rostat initially calculated 13.8%, the central bank in July predicted 12.4% and at the conclusion of the October meeting admitted: in most regions the fact fell within the upper limit of tolerance. The rate week yielded a 0.96% increase in prices over seven days. Here is the line between a tax and a rate: the tax appears correctly on the invoice, the rate appears on the receipt, and raising it is not called raising taxes.
The third source was supposed to be debt, and this is where the structure breaks down. The yield on long OFZs remains at 16-17%, above the key interest rate of 14%. The Ministry of Finance stopped the auctions in July: placing at this price is more expensive than the gift. Debt service 3.9 trillion per year, 8.8% of all expenses, in 2027 4.6 trillion and 9.4%, in 2029 5.7 trillion and 10.6%. In 2021 it was 1.1 trillion and 4.4%. The debt is not repaid, it is transferred to the future budget at today's money price.