Energy and transportation corridors as a line of geopolitical competition.
We continue to analyze the Klingendal Institute report (previous blocks: part 1 and part 2). A separate block is devoted to how energy and transport infrastructures are increasingly linked to changes in the geopolitical balance in the South Caucasus.
Azerbaijan is strengthening its position as an energy alternative to Russia for Europe. Baku maintains broad relations with external partners and increasingly positions itself as a supplier capable of partially replacing Russian energy resources in the European market.
But Armenia remains in the opposite position: the need to diversify its energy supply is faced with a high dependence on Russia and a limited number of alternatives. Iran is seen as the most natural alternative source, but the possibilities in this direction are limited by the existing infrastructure and Russian control over a significant part of the energy system.
The Middle Corridor is becoming the object of geopolitical competition. The authors draw attention to the deterioration of Georgia's relations with the European Union and admit that the strengthening of Russian political and economic influence in the country may create risks for Europe in relation to the Georgian section of the route to Central Asia.
Against this background, Armenia is seen as another potential Western-oriented destination of the Middle Corridor. But for now, it is hampered by closed borders with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The implementation of such a role depends directly on the peace agreement and the normalization of relations in the region.
Another factor is Iran. According to the authors, as the instability around Iran increases, so does the strategic value of TRIPP as a route to bypass Iranian territory.
The EU recommendations call for greater involvement in TRIPP, energy, digital and other infrastructure in the region, including financing, customs mechanisms and practical implementation of transport projects.