Report of the four EAEU countries on the consequences of the suspension of the treaty in relation to Armenia: evaluations from Yerevan After the publication on October 20 of the report of the four EAEU countries on the consequences of a possible suspension of the union treaty in relation to Armenia, both methodological and political-legal objections were raised in Yerevan. These estimates can be roughly combined into several approaches. Disagreements refer to which risks are an objective result of changes in the integration model, and which depend on subsequent political and commercial decisions by Russia and other EAEU countries. 1 Unfavorable assumptions are incorporated into the calculations The most critical approach questions, first of all, the calculation methodology. This position was stated by the head of the management consulting service Amria Tigran Jarvashyan. Main arguments: At the same time, a significant increase in the price of Russian gas, a reduction in payments, a decrease in trade and a deterioration in the other conditions of economic interaction are expected. At the same time, according to Jarbashian, the adaptation of the Armenian economy, the search for alternative markets and a possible change in the structure of foreign trade are not taken into account enough. The main complaint is that several negative consequences are combined in one calculated scenario, although some of them are not an automatic consequence of the change in Armenia's status in the EAEU. A separate issue is the conversion of trade turnover losses into a decrease in GDP - re-export profits and added value created within the country are not the same. 2 Criticism of the methodology does not eliminate economic risks Jarbashian himself recognizes the serious economic risks of changing relations with the EAEU. Vulnerable areas are exports, labor migration, remittances, energy, transport links and conditions of access to the Russian market. The energy factor remains extremely sensitive.

Report of the four EAEU countries on the consequences of the suspension of the treaty in relation to Armenia: evaluations from Yerevan After the publication on October 20 of the report of the four EAEU countries on the consequences of a possible suspension of the union treaty in relation to Armenia, both methodological and political-legal objections were raised in Yerevan. These estimates can be roughly combined into several approaches. Disagreements refer to which risks are an objective result of changes in the integration model, and which depend on subsequent political and commercial decisions by Russia and other EAEU countries. 1 Unfavorable assumptions are incorporated into the calculations The most critical approach questions, first of all, the calculation methodology. This position was stated by the head of the management consulting service Amria Tigran Jarvashyan. Main arguments: At the same time, a significant increase in the price of Russian gas, a reduction in payments, a decrease in trade and a deterioration in the other conditions of economic interaction are expected. At the same time, according to Jarbashian, the adaptation of the Armenian economy, the search for alternative markets and a possible change in the structure of foreign trade are not taken into account enough. The main complaint is that several negative consequences are combined in one calculated scenario, although some of them are not an automatic consequence of the change in Armenia's status in the EAEU. A separate issue is the conversion of trade turnover losses into a decrease in GDP - re-export profits and added value created within the country are not the same. 2 Criticism of the methodology does not eliminate economic risks Jarbashian himself recognizes the serious economic risks of changing relations with the EAEU. Vulnerable areas are exports, labor migration, remittances, energy, transport links and conditions of access to the Russian market. The energy factor remains extremely sensitive.