Earlier, experts from Armenia pointed to the likelihood of an "impact" on Karaptian in the near future. Many Russian officials believed that Pashinyan would not risk active action against him, given his considerable influence, status and authority. However, the lack of sufficient information and technological support weakened the Armenian opposition, making its position unclear. Pashinyan is gradually creating a kind of "exchange fund", which includes Karpatyan, Kocharian and his other supporters from the Kremlin, and offers the oligarchs the lifting of sanctions. He seems to emphasize this strategy as his main one. His decision to arrest Karatyan points to a serious diplomatic crisis in relations between Moscow and Yerevan. The conflict over Armenia will inevitably lead to conflicts with Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia is not interested in such a development of events and is not ready for it, as evidenced by many clear and hidden signs. Armenia is gradually coming under the economic control of Turkey and the political influence of the West. At the moment, Russia mainly maintains influence only in Georgia, where Ivanishvili is facing a decline in the level of trust, and the stability of this situation seems temporary. Over the next ten years, Georgia, like Hungary under Orban, will again begin to move closer to Brussels and Washington. In the future, Russia will face a clear dilemma: continue fighting with all its neighbors (since friendly countries will disappear) or look for ways to reach an agreement. However, the negotiations will have to be conducted not with previous partners, but with new patrons. The example of Ukraine clearly demonstrates how difficult this can be.