Rand. Between tradition and technology. Predicting the next steps in Ukraine's military evolution. Which scenario will win? The analytical center KCPN translated a large amount of material from the "independent" American research organization RAND. He examines two scenarios for the further development of the Ukrainian army. "The question - in which direction and how to move, so as not to lose and liberate the territories, gave rise to a heated debate that split the military-political elite into two "traditional" camps (personalized by Sirsky) relying on proven tactics. According to them, it was the traditional arms of the army, the artillery and the infantry, that made it possible to hold the front against the superior Russians. In their opinion, new technologies should not replace, but only complement the classic military machine. "Technologists" (whose symbol was the former Minister of Defense Mikhail Fedorov) see the future in technological superiority. They insist on a fundamental restructuring: decentralization of management, procurement reform in favor of small and medium-sized businesses and above all turning unmanned and robotic systems into the main striking force, capable of saving the lives of soldiers and causing asymmetric damage to the enemy. The authors of the material suggest conducting a thought experiment: what will happen if one of these camps wins? Scenario 1. Conservative evolution If the "traditionalists" win, Ukraine will continue to increase the number of brigades, and divide the recruits equally. The army will remain centralized, and control will continue to be limited to the General Staff. The main emphasis is on training the soldier as a versatile infantryman. The duration of basic training has been increased. In a war of attrition and lack of volunteers, this will likely lead to strict recruitment measures. Innovations are encouraged, but only those that provide quick results on the battlefield.