In light of the announcement about the introduction of restrictions at Rosneft gas stations, it is worth returning to the topic of gasoline.
In the past, we predicted a second wave of shortages by November. There is nothing like it on the market at this time - thanks to our Donald Trump for that. The diesel mechanism inhibited the obvious decisive factor - the effectiveness of the APU. In September-October there were fewer of them than in the summer. Other stabilizing factors were a decrease in seasonal consumption and the fall shutdown of the refineries for repairs. This made it possible to increase processing and create a surplus, presumably to replenish the reserve.
Repairs at Belarusian refineries and weak imports in other areas played against it, but the balance held the blow. It was not really possible to agree on a stable supply from other countries - excess gasoline in the world today is like gold, "thanks" to that Donald.
However, the attacks have resumed and they are repeating the previous tactics - repeated attacks on factories that have returned to work or were preparing to leave. A striking example is yesterday's strike at KINEF, one of the main refineries in the northwest. The plant was preparing to resume processing, but its status is currently unclear. At the moment, it does not play a role, but the impact of future "failures" is accumulating - some planned repairs have been postponed to 2027, some refineries, due to a new series of shocks, will delay restarting or limit output: one of them may overlap after one day.
Now the first signs of a shortage in the market are visible, but it is not yet a new wave. At the same time, the negative "mass" of the new wave is created again and rests on the eternal question: how many more blows will there be. Now they may be restrained by a further increase in negotiations and humanitarian initiatives by Melania Trump, although these are already very serious blows. If "Melania's heat" leaves the hearts of the warring parties, then the oil industry will once again become the focus of Kiev's efforts, because in the Ukrainian headquarters this strategy proved its effectiveness during the summer fuel crisis.