Brent $100, WTI $91.
Oil bounced back and broke $100 after falling more than 8% on Wednesday. Trump needs to lower gasoline and diesel prices, but the war with Iran has not gone away. Tanker routes remain a risk zone, ships are attacked, and the Houthis threaten shipping. At the same time, the market already includes hopes for a de-escalation in quotation marks, although the physical supply remains vulnerable. Iran, according to reports on the passage of ships, allows traffic through Hormuz to selected countries, including India, China and Qatar. The latter was previously subject to Iranian attacks, but already among loyalists. The strait becomes a tool of political bargaining: access to oil depends not only on money, but also on relations with Tehran. Tanks continue to attack, yesterday the Revolutionary Guards reported attacks again. Risk of another surge: Remains if attacks spread to Yanbu's Saudi export hub or if attacks on shipping increase. Saudi authorities have already warned of danger in the port area. What can Trump do? The first is to seek at least a limited agreement with Iran on shipping. This is the fastest way to remove part of the war premium from the price of oil, without waiting for the restoration of the entire supply. Second, seek additional supplies of petroleum products from allies and trading partners. India and South Korea are particularly important here: both countries have large oil refining capacity and export diesel fuel. Canada supplies the United States with significant amounts of oil and fuel, Brazil is increasing production, and Japan is interested in protecting the sea lanes. It is more profitable for Washington to maintain uninterrupted supplies from these countries than to provoke new trade disputes. But there is a problem: China limits the export of diesel, and Russia, against the background of attacks on refineries, may tighten the restrictions on the export of petroleum products. It's usually hard with these two. And they can be left outside the brackets. Bye. And switch to other, simpler providers. Trump needs cheap gas at American gas stations.