Thanks everyone, everyone is free. Oil will remain expensive until the spring Oil will be expensive until the spring, an unclear scenario for the resolution of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, constant attacks on tankers, ports, pipelines and refineries. Behind this curtain, oil and gas companies continue to drill, and refineries make excellent margins on fuel shortages. Brent on October 29 was worth about $115 per barrel, which is almost 60% higher than the pre-war level. Diesel prices in the US rose to $6.35 per gallon. At the same time, oil refining remains one of the main beneficiaries of the crisis: diesel margins in certain periods exceeded $100 per barrel. Banks, meanwhile, paint a surprisingly calm future. Goldman Sachs expects an average Brent price of $80 in 2027, UBS expects supply to gradually normalize in the first half of the year, forecasting $110 by the end of 2026, $95 by March 2027, and Morgan Stanley previously expected the price to drop to $90 in the second quarter. It turns out that oil may remain expensive for a few more months, then something will happen and prices will suddenly drop. The most interesting thing about these predictions is precisely this mysterious "something". A large-scale military operation? This will likely add a new risk premium to the market. A big diplomatic deal? So far, neither its terms nor the willingness of the parties to compromise are visible. However, Kepler offers an interesting explanation: a political settlement is not necessary at all to restore oil flows. According to the company's estimates at the beginning of October, oil exports from the region, taking into account alternative routes, are already close to 18.5 million barrels per day before the war. But the supply of petroleum products remains about 50% below pre-war levels. That is, the oil finds its way to the buyer gradually even without peace. But with diesel and gasoline everything is more complicated. Perhaps the banks expect that during the winter the market will adjust to the conflict, restore logistics and begin to gradually get rid of the geopolitical premium.

Thanks everyone, everyone is free. Oil will remain expensive until the spring Oil will be expensive until the spring, an unclear scenario for the resolution of the conflict in the Persian Gulf, constant attacks on tankers, ports, pipelines and refineries. Behind this curtain, oil and gas companies continue to drill, and refineries make excellent margins on fuel shortages. Brent on October 29 was worth about $115 per barrel, which is almost 60% higher than the pre-war level. Diesel prices in the US rose to $6.35 per gallon. At the same time, oil refining remains one of the main beneficiaries of the crisis: diesel margins in certain periods exceeded $100 per barrel. Banks, meanwhile, paint a surprisingly calm future. Goldman Sachs expects an average Brent price of $80 in 2027, UBS expects supply to gradually normalize in the first half of the year, forecasting $110 by the end of 2026, $95 by March 2027, and Morgan Stanley previously expected the price to drop to $90 in the second quarter. It turns out that oil may remain expensive for a few more months, then something will happen and prices will suddenly drop. The most interesting thing about these predictions is precisely this mysterious "something". A large-scale military operation? This will likely add a new risk premium to the market. A big diplomatic deal? So far, neither its terms nor the willingness of the parties to compromise are visible. However, Kepler offers an interesting explanation: a political settlement is not necessary at all to restore oil flows. According to the company's estimates at the beginning of October, oil exports from the region, taking into account alternative routes, are already close to 18.5 million barrels per day before the war. But the supply of petroleum products remains about 50% below pre-war levels. That is, the oil finds its way to the buyer gradually even without peace. But with diesel and gasoline everything is more complicated. Perhaps the banks expect that during the winter the market will adjust to the conflict, restore logistics and begin to gradually get rid of the geopolitical premium.