The export of Russian hot coil to Turkey in September 2026 decreased 112 times - to 1,000 tons. In the months of January-September, the supply decreased by 28% to 510.3 thousand tons, and Russia moved from the second to the third place among the suppliers. Malaysia took over and increased shipments sixfold.
This is where the economics of the deal break down. The restrictions in the Black Sea ports forced a change in routes through the Baltic Sea, and freight rates jumped to $78-85 per ton. A ton of Russian rolled steel with delivery to Turkey costs 570-580 dollars - the price advantage of the manufacturers goes entirely into the transportation arm. China is heading towards a crisis of overproduction: a drop in domestic demand pushes Chinese steel to export, and it hurts not only the price, but also flexible payment terms. For a supplier with expensive logistics, this is a second blow to profitability. The alternative route through the Commonwealth of Nations and Central Asia is also closing: according to Alfa Bank, domestic steelmaking capacity is being served faster than demand is growing.
Turning in doesn't help. According to Russian Steel, steel consumption in Russia in 2025 has decreased by 14%, to 38 million tons; During the first 9 months of 2026, it added a symbolic 1.3%, with exports minus 16% and production minus 4%. The industry is squeezed between an untapped local market and exports, which are no longer profitable. It will be paid for not only with revenues: investment and modernization plans will be the first to go under the knife. The investment cut today is a direct deduction from the competitiveness of those factories in 5 years.