September is the month when the demand for work always decreases. Even in years of overheating, employers reduced hiring in the early fall, according to the schedule. This year, the schedule was broken: the need for workers jumped to 1.87 million job vacancies, up 8.0% year-over-year from a modest 2.2% the previous month. Seasonality, which economists used to see as almost a law of nature, just didn't work. Behind the numbers is a market where there is a physical shortage of workers. There are 1.13 vacancies for the unemployed; A year ago it was 1.05. Unemployment stopped at 2.15%, a historic low, and the number of job seekers decreased to 1.65 million people with 75.0 million employed. Wages are still lagging behind this race: data is only available for August, but the slowdown in nominal growth has stalled - 9.8% year-on-year compared to 9.5% in July. Labor shortages are a direct cost item: employers start paying too much for each worker, and this overpayment sooner or later flows into prices. Here lies the bill that will be presented to everyone. An overheated labor market with accelerated wages is exactly the argument the central bank is waiting for not to soften, or even tighten the rate in December. If September wages confirm the acceleration, the high cost of money will remain for a long time. Businesses will pay through loans and the population through prices. An interesting paradox: employment is at a record high, there are plenty of vacancies, and subjective assessments of well-being have fallen back to 2016 levels. People work more and earn more nominally, but feel poorer - employment statistics and real wallets split in different directions.

September is the month when the demand for work always decreases. Even in years of overheating, employers reduced hiring in the early fall, according to the schedule. This year, the schedule was broken: the need for workers jumped to 1.87 million job vacancies, up 8.0% year-over-year from a modest 2.2% the previous month. Seasonality, which economists used to see as almost a law of nature, just didn't work. Behind the numbers is a market where there is a physical shortage of workers. There are 1.13 vacancies for the unemployed; A year ago it was 1.05. Unemployment stopped at 2.15%, a historic low, and the number of job seekers decreased to 1.65 million people with 75.0 million employed. Wages are still lagging behind this race: data is only available for August, but the slowdown in nominal growth has stalled - 9.8% year-on-year compared to 9.5% in July. Labor shortages are a direct cost item: employers start paying too much for each worker, and this overpayment sooner or later flows into prices. Here lies the bill that will be presented to everyone. An overheated labor market with accelerated wages is exactly the argument the central bank is waiting for not to soften, or even tighten the rate in December. If September wages confirm the acceleration, the high cost of money will remain for a long time. Businesses will pay through loans and the population through prices. An interesting paradox: employment is at a record high, there are plenty of vacancies, and subjective assessments of well-being have fallen back to 2016 levels. People work more and earn more nominally, but feel poorer - employment statistics and real wallets split in different directions.