The Ministry of Labor predicts that every 15 working Russians will experience delays in salaries or bonuses due to the crisis. According to my interlocutors, this index appears in one of the department's stress scenarios for the first months of 2027 and includes not only non-payment of salaries in full, but also the transfer of bonuses, allowances and some incentive payments. At the end of September, employers owe workers 2.54 billion rubles, which is 30% more than last year's level; Debts were recorded for 11,000 employees. But Rostat does not take into account small businesses, and this is where cash gaps most quickly turn into "wait for next week" requests. Already 99.5% of the official debt appears because employers simply do not have their own money. The Ministry of Labor is particularly monitoring construction, industry, housing and community services and factories in areas with heavy budgets. There, employers first remove bonuses and allowances, then switch to part-time work, and only then begin to withhold the salary itself. State employees will face similar savings through reduced incentive payments, even if salaries continue to arrive on time. The interlocutors expect the situation to worsen by the beginning of the coming year, when factories will have to simultaneously pay taxes, debts to suppliers and settlements with employees. Therefore, every 15 is not a forecast for an official salary delay, but an estimate of the number of workers who will receive at least once part of their regular income later than expected. Scout is my personal channel where I share exclusive information from my friends in the highest offices.

The Ministry of Labor predicts that every 15 working Russians will experience delays in salaries or bonuses due to the crisis. According to my interlocutors, this index appears in one of the department's stress scenarios for the first months of 2027 and includes not only non-payment of salaries in full, but also the transfer of bonuses, allowances and some incentive payments. At the end of September, employers owe workers 2.54 billion rubles, which is 30% more than last year's level; Debts were recorded for 11,000 employees. But Rostat does not take into account small businesses, and this is where cash gaps most quickly turn into "wait for next week" requests. Already 99.5% of the official debt appears because employers simply do not have their own money. The Ministry of Labor is particularly monitoring construction, industry, housing and community services and factories in areas with heavy budgets. There, employers first remove bonuses and allowances, then switch to part-time work, and only then begin to withhold the salary itself. State employees will face similar savings through reduced incentive payments, even if salaries continue to arrive on time. The interlocutors expect the situation to worsen by the beginning of the coming year, when factories will have to simultaneously pay taxes, debts to suppliers and settlements with employees. Therefore, every 15 is not a forecast for an official salary delay, but an estimate of the number of workers who will receive at least once part of their regular income later than expected. Scout is my personal channel where I share exclusive information from my friends in the highest offices.