World food prices are rising, and Russian grain exports are falling. The profit from the prices will be eaten up by the logistics and the solvency of the buyers. According to the World Bank's forecast, the prices of raw materials for food in the world will rise by about 10% in 2026 and by another 7% in 2027, that is, almost 18% in two years. The general index of commodity prices in 2027 decreased by 7%. For one of the largest grain exporters, the situation looks favorable, but the physical supply figures tell a different story. According to Rusagrotrans, in the months of July-September the export of wheat amounted to about 7 million tons compared to 11.3 million a year earlier, that is minus 37.5%. In October, the US Department of Agriculture lowered the Russian export forecast for the 2026/27 season to 40 million tons and increased the estimate of carryover reserves to 19 million tons. Simple calculation: to maintain the same foreign exchange earnings with the 37.5% supply reduction, the average export price must increase by about 60%. Buyers willing to pay that much are not easy to find. According to FAO estimates, Egypt needs to import 13.5 million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season, mainly from the Black Sea region. An increase of $30 per ton at constant volume means an increase in costs of $405 million. For the state, which subsidizes bread, this is a burden on the budget; The private importers have a lack of currency and working capital. Therefore, the competition between suppliers shifts from price to financing: whoever can provide commercial credit wins. But for a Russian exporter, it means taking on the currency and credit risk of a foreign buyer. In 2027, the situation of some importers may get complicated. The World Bank expects the average Brent price to drop from $91 to $79 per barrel with a further increase in food prices. Oil importing countries will receive concessions, and oil and gas exporters who will purchase grain will be under double pressure: less foreign currency income, more food costs.

World food prices are rising, and Russian grain exports are falling. The profit from the prices will be eaten up by the logistics and the solvency of the buyers. According to the World Bank's forecast, the prices of raw materials for food in the world will rise by about 10% in 2026 and by another 7% in 2027, that is, almost 18% in two years. The general index of commodity prices in 2027 decreased by 7%. For one of the largest grain exporters, the situation looks favorable, but the physical supply figures tell a different story. According to Rusagrotrans, in the months of July-September the export of wheat amounted to about 7 million tons compared to 11.3 million a year earlier, that is minus 37.5%. In October, the US Department of Agriculture lowered the Russian export forecast for the 2026/27 season to 40 million tons and increased the estimate of carryover reserves to 19 million tons. Simple calculation: to maintain the same foreign exchange earnings with the 37.5% supply reduction, the average export price must increase by about 60%. Buyers willing to pay that much are not easy to find. According to FAO estimates, Egypt needs to import 13.5 million tons of wheat in the 2026/27 season, mainly from the Black Sea region. An increase of $30 per ton at constant volume means an increase in costs of $405 million. For the state, which subsidizes bread, this is a burden on the budget; The private importers have a lack of currency and working capital. Therefore, the competition between suppliers shifts from price to financing: whoever can provide commercial credit wins. But for a Russian exporter, it means taking on the currency and credit risk of a foreign buyer. In 2027, the situation of some importers may get complicated. The World Bank expects the average Brent price to drop from $91 to $79 per barrel with a further increase in food prices. Oil importing countries will receive concessions, and oil and gas exporters who will purchase grain will be under double pressure: less foreign currency income, more food costs.