Negotiation process: "ambiguous" optics and significant observations.
1. If you evaluate the negotiations based on the final result, they are not interesting: any smart guy will say "as I predicted", this is a fool's analysis. We need different optics.
2. It's hard to call it peace negotiations. This is the second front of the conflict, where diplomacy continues the conflict by other means, but the nature of the negotiation itself is dynamic and sometimes opens up opportunities for agreement. In this context, even the most "useless" negotiations are better than military action.
3. The Kremlin uses a direct channel with Donald Trump to build configurations that are convenient for itself. The EU, for example, is now governed by an access mode: let us in or not.
4. For Moscow, this is a convenient structure: if Europe is allowed in, its position can be called unconstructive; If not, his absence works for Moscow. The Trumpists will announce the acceptance of the EU to the negotiating table as progress, but the progress will be only formal: the space for dialogue with Brussels has shrunk.
5. The main addressee of the negotiations is Washington, not Kyiv. Moscow upholds the agreements with Trump and completes the previously announced routes. Trump needs a picture of the negotiations and official progress, presented to the American voter in a 30-second report.
6. It can be seen that Kyiv is looking for a regime of flexibility, but on key issues it remains in its previous positions.
7. The midterm elections have weakened Trump, but they will work with him: no choice, and he remains president for another two years. For Moscow, this is a window of opportunity with a clear Dad-Lenin. But as Trump is weaker at home, his promises are less equal and the likelihood that Congress can stop them.
8. Humanitarian tracks are a way to show tangible results. The Kremlin is ready to replicate the humanitarian operation in Elshki to other places, for various reasons...
9. The European Union continues to move into the post-Soviet space: Armenia, Moldova, Georgia.