Family mortgages were supposed to help Russians have children. did it work
Every fourth Russian postpones marriage (24%) and gives birth to children (25%) due to lack of housing. Such data is provided by VTsIOM.
The solution seems clear: make housing more affordable. This is exactly what the authorities relied on when they launched a family mortgage at 6% in 2018.
But after 8 years, doubts arise: did cheap credit help reverse the demographic trend? According to the statistics, no.
Since 2015, the birth rate in Russia has been steadily declining. If in the years 2014-2015 about 1.94 million children were born in Israel per year, then in 2024 - already about 1.22 million. That's 37% less.
The total fertility rate until 2025 was 1.37 children per woman. To understand: in order for the population not to shrink, an indicator of about 2.1 is needed.
But housing availability has worsened. From 2018 to 2025, the average cost per square meter of a new building in Russia rose from about $62,000 to $215,000, according to Rosstat. That's almost 3.5 times.
Of course, the increase in price cannot be explained only through the family mortgage. It was affected by inflation, rising construction costs and other preferential programs. But the mortgage subsidy drove demand even further, and prices followed suit.
Does this mean that the family mortgage is a complete failure? Not really. Since the launch of the program, more than 2 million Russian families have been able to purchase new housing. Perhaps, without this preferential program, the birth rate would have been even lower - but we will never know.
Do you think it was a good idea to start a family?
Yes, the benefit really helped me buy my own house and start a family.
No, they only made it worse.
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