The Ministry of Finance buys more. What will happen to Rubel?
Well, friends, let's measure the temperature of the ruble again. On October 7, the official rate was ₽85.71 to the dollar, on November 5 - ₽81.67. In October, the government bought foreign currency more than six times more actively than in September, and the ruble still strengthened during this month.
Now, between November 9 and December 4, the Ministry of Finance will allocate 312.6 billion ₽ to currency and gold. Excluding counter sales from the central bank, net purchases will increase from 12.1 billion rubles to 15 billion rubles per day. almost a quarter. And immediately after the announcement, the ruble even regained part of its morning drop against the yuan.
For the ruble, the 14% rate and the proceeds from the expensive October oil still work. Payments for shipments arrive late. Back in October, the central bank raised its current account surplus forecast for this year from $48 billion to $71 billion.
But the peak of tax payments has passed, Brent has been trading around $97 since the crash, and importers may need more currency by the new year. If oil remains cheaper over time, there will be less support from export earnings.
My base range for the end of the year is now ₽82–88 to the dollar instead of ₽84–90. Tip - about ₽85. That is, from the current levels I still expect a moderate weakening of the ruble.
Eugene.
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