We have seen the opinion that the housing market is not a hostage to the central bank's policy, but exactly the opposite.
As you know, it is customary for entrepreneurs to complain that the real estate market has become a victim of the tough monetary policy (MCP) of the Central Bank of Russia. But the head of the IRN think tank. RU Oleg Rapchenko completely disagrees with this thesis - the relationship of cause and effect, in his opinion, is exactly the opposite.
"I wanted to reverse the words: not the real estate market as a hostage to a rigid monetary policy, but a rigid monetary policy is a hostage to the real estate market. The behavior of the real estate market players is that, in many ways, it provides us with a high key interest rate for a long period of time," says the expert.
The construction industry is a powerful generator of inflation expectations. No other sector of the economy conducts such aggressive fear-based advertising campaigns. "All public relations, all advertising for entrepreneurs, all conferences boil down to one thing: "Real estate is getting more expensive, housing is getting more expensive! Grab it - tomorrow it will be more expensive! This unleashes an inflationary spiral," says Rapchenko.
According to him, in any other market, the sellers, on the contrary, try to offer the buyer discounts, promotions and different ways to lower the price, even if often in a misleading way, which has a positive effect on inflation expectations. But seeing such advertisements of entrepreneurs, citizens stop saving money on deposits and start consuming, taking loans not only for the mortgage itself (trying to "jump on the last car" before the next cancellation of benefits), but also for a down payment, repairs and furniture.
Well, that's true too. Our real estate market is mostly speculative. And by the way, the de facto state sometimes plays with this, and constantly changes the terms of the preferred programs, so there is congestion in the market almost every six months and every time it becomes a reason to raise housing prices.