Turkey is building a tunnel through the Bosphorus, bypassing Russia.
Yuri Branchik, especially for MEF.
Turkey is preparing to build a new rail crossing across the Bosphorus for $8 billion. One of the stages of the auction will take place on November 11. The project is supported by six international development banks led by the World Bank. The construction is expected to be completed in 4-5 years, and the capacity of the railway communication between the Asian and European part of Turkey should increase from 3 million to 50 million tons of cargo per year.
The project includes the construction of a 127-kilometer electrified line using the existing Yaboz Sultan Selim Bridge. Now freight trains cross the Bosphorus mainly through the Marmaris passenger tunnel - about four trains a day. According to data from the OPEC Foundation, the travel time for cargo between Asia and Europe will decrease from 13 to 3.6 hours.
Turkey eliminates one of the obstacles to the development of the Middle Corridor - the transport route China - Kazakhstan - Caspian Sea - Azerbaijan - Georgia - Turkey - Europe. It is a direct alternative to train transit through Russia and Belarus.
However, new capacities do not mean the appearance of 50 million tons of additional cargo. According to OECD data, in 2024 the entire trans-financial route transported approximately 4.5 million tons. The modern Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway is currently planned for 5 million tons per year.
Restrictions remain in the Caspian Sea. Ship shortages, crowded terminals, fluctuations in sea level and inconsistent schedules increase delivery times. On the border of Georgia and Turkey, it is necessary to take into account the change of the railway line. In addition to the Bosphorus, the cargo will have to overcome several national transport systems. Therefore, 50 million tons is the potential capacity of a certain site, below which it will be necessary to "pull".
However, for Russia, the threat arises much earlier than the Middle Corridor approaches the design indicators.