Russian businesses are preparing to save on such a scale that frugality threatens to become the source of a new recession. In a survey by the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs for the third quarter of 2026, 84% of participants intend to cut spending. The drop in demand worries 38% of the companies. Each individual decision can be explained by concern for the survival of the plant. The simultaneous withdrawal of many customers deprives their suppliers of income and passes on the financial difficulties.
A lack of working capital is indicated by 36% of respondents compared to 26.9% in the previous quarter. There were slightly fewer complaints about non-payments by partners: about 36% instead of almost 40%. At the same time, the increase in the debt burden is already holding back 19.7% of the participants. Manufacturing has costs that must be paid before the product is sold. When revenue comes in more slowly, and some of it goes to the creditor, even a working workshop begins to experience cash starvation. Reduced orders and expensive loans can make it permanent.
Companies are already thinking about how to survive this shortage. About 10% are going to demand an advance from buyers, 9.1% are going to refuse advances from suppliers. Individually, these are protective measures. When distributing them, the producer has to pay for his purchases sooner and wait longer for other people's money. Trading partners stop lending to each other through favorable payment terms. The contract amount may remain the same, but fulfilling it without a bank loan becomes more difficult.
29.1% of respondents intend to raise prices. At the same time, about 15% admit to a decrease in productivity or services. There is an unpleasant calculation behind the attempt to sell less and more expensively: the maintenance of the enterprise is divided among a smaller number of products. Some costs increase per unit even without a new wage increase. The buyer can refuse an expensive product, and then the manufacturer will not receive the funds for which he wrote the price tag. The threat of stagflation arises from this mutual loss of opportunity: weak demand coupled with expensive production.