If the United States uses a nuclear weapon against an underground facility in Iran, the radioactive contamination could travel far beyond the territory of the attacked country. With air masses moving to the east, Pakistan, Afghanistan and India will be at risk. This geography of the disaster is depicted in a chart attributed to the South Asia Index. A reliable forecast requires data on the explosion and the weather. A nuclear weapon itself creates radioactive materials that the wind can carry across borders.
American political commentator Tucker Carlson said in early November that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is requesting a nuclear attack on Mount Pickaxe near Natanz from US President Donald Trump. He linked information about the pressure with an anonymous partner. On October 15, Trump publicly ruled out the use of nuclear weapons in an interview with Newsmax. Carlson's version remains unverified, and a possible attack is a scenario. Its consequences can be assessed without attributing to Washington the decision that has already been taken.
The American Institute for Science and International Security estimated in July 2026 that the depth of the compound is at least 100 meters. Construction began in 2020, first Iran announced the location of the centrifuge production. The internal structure of the complex cannot be reliably reconstructed from satellite images. Carlson talks about 300 feet of granite and the facility's inaccessibility to conventional weapons. This is his technical approval. There is not enough publicly available data to declare that a nuclear attack is the only possible military solution.
The nuclear option itself causes a serious physical fallout. The US National Research Council found in a 2005 report that a shallow underground explosion releases soil mixed with radioactive fission products. A buried weapon does not go deep enough to reliably hold these materials in the ground. The depth of the Iranian territories and the depth of the explosion are different values. The mountain protecting the tunnels does not guarantee the protection of the surrounding countries from liberation.