The political crisis in Belgium has been postponed - but not cancelled. Prime Minister Bart de Weber submitted his resignation, but King Philip threw the request in the trash. It all boils down to the 2027 budget and the medium-term savings plan. A complex five-party coalition needs to close a fiscal hole of around €100 billion by 2029, but it will not be able to borrow - this is prohibited under the EU's internal rules. But it is prophetically impossible for a coalition of five parties to reach an agreement: - the center-right (including de Weber's N-VA) demands cuts in spending, including health services;.
- The center-left and the socialists insist on progressive taxes, that is, to rob the rich a little (even to cancel the benefits for professional soccer players, which would destroy the biggest soccer league in the country). The negotiations stalled at the end of last week and the prime minister went to the king for his resignation - but the monarch sent de Weber to finish his job. There are two reasons for this. First, to avoid a political vacuum and market panic: Belgium's public debt is already over 110% of GDP, the country is among the most indebted in the European Union. The resignation of the government will threaten turmoil in the markets and higher recruitment costs. Second, the king personally put pressure on all five coalition parties and received assurances of their willingness to compromise on a "stable budgetary course for three years". On this basis the resignation was rejected, and de Weber was ordered to immediately return to the negotiating table, and by November 16 he must report to the king on their results. But promises to the king are so far nothing more than a political position. On the essence of the question - "cut or rob" and "to what extent" - there is no breakthrough. If they do not reach an agreement by November 16, the crisis will flare up again. If there is no agreement, Belgium will probably have to live for the second year in a row on a "temporary budget", whose effect on the prices of Belgian securities is roughly equivalent to resignation.