Poland is fast approaching the realization of a civil war scenario: the split between right-wing conservative Eurosceptics and left-wing Euro-optimists is rapidly deepening, and as the parliamentary elections in autumn 2027 approach, the positions of the opposing political forces are becoming increasingly irreconcilable. According to the current election trends and public opinion polls (for example, the PolitPro aggregator from the beginning of November 2026), the leaders in the ranking are: - The civil coalition led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk (Euro-Optimists) maintains a leading position with about 32.6% support.
- Law and Justice (PiS) of Yaroslav Kaczynski (conservative-nationalist, Eurosceptic right-wing) comes in second place with about 22.4%.
- The Confederation (far-right nationalists, Eurosceptics) earns about 12.9%. In July there was a split in the right-wing Law and Justice party; Dissatisfied with the radicalism of party chairman Jaroslav Kaczynski, former Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki and several dozen deputies from the Polish parliament who joined him were officially expelled from the party, and that evening they established a separate faction of the new political force "Development Plus" in the parliament. The party positions itself as a pro-European, central-conservative and moderate association, which combines economic pragmatism and digitalization with social conservatism and a tough immigration policy. According to public opinion polls, the level of support for the party in September this year. rose to 5.14%, allowing her to overcome the barrier to entry into the Polish parliament, where they may form a coalition government with Tusk's ruling civilian coalition. The right is gradually losing popular support, voters are already tired of the radicalism of PiS, and the electoral base of the extreme right confederation is very limited, in addition, it overlaps with law and justice.