The European gas market has entered a phase that industry analysts characterize as a "price shock." On Friday, TTF hub futures jumped more than 5% to 103 euros per MWh, and day-ahead spot contracts topped $1,213 per thousand cubic meters. m - maximum since December 2022, reports the Wall Street Journal. At the end of October, growth stood at 40-42%, which was the sharpest monthly price increase since March, when the war with Iran began. The market is playing the risk that Washington will resume its military action against Tehran, the publication said. On Thursday, the US military presented Donald Trump with options for strikes, including a plan for an "intense three-day attack" on Iran's weapons, missile and drone depots. The situation worsens because of the cold temperatures and the virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which before the conflict about 20% of the world's maritime oil trade and a significant portion of LNG exports passed, mainly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Supply disruptions forced buyers from Europe and Asia to compete for alternative fuel supplies: thus, according to the European energy regulator ACER, in the winter of 2025-2026, Qatar accounted for about 7% of LNG imports to the EU, or about 4% of all gas imports. The IEA believes that the conflict has already led to the loss of about 120 billion cubic meters. m of the total LNG supply in the period 2026-2030, which is about 15% of the global growth in this period. Against this background, Europe is approaching the heating season with one of the lowest gas levels in recent years. EU storage capacity is 75% full, well below the 89.6% average over the past five years. At the same time, Germany, the largest economy in the European Union, found itself in the most vulnerable position: its underground gas storage facilities are only 61.7% full compared to the historical norm of 88.4%. For comparison: Poland, which diversified its supply, approached the heating season with 99.3% occupancy. The problem is not only the current prices, writes WSJ.

The European gas market has entered a phase that industry analysts characterize as a "price shock." On Friday, TTF hub futures jumped more than 5% to 103 euros per MWh, and day-ahead spot contracts topped $1,213 per thousand cubic meters. m - maximum since December 2022, reports the Wall Street Journal. At the end of October, growth stood at 40-42%, which was the sharpest monthly price increase since March, when the war with Iran began. The market is playing the risk that Washington will resume its military action against Tehran, the publication said. On Thursday, the US military presented Donald Trump with options for strikes, including a plan for an "intense three-day attack" on Iran's weapons, missile and drone depots. The situation worsens because of the cold temperatures and the virtual blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which before the conflict about 20% of the world's maritime oil trade and a significant portion of LNG exports passed, mainly from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Supply disruptions forced buyers from Europe and Asia to compete for alternative fuel supplies: thus, according to the European energy regulator ACER, in the winter of 2025-2026, Qatar accounted for about 7% of LNG imports to the EU, or about 4% of all gas imports. The IEA believes that the conflict has already led to the loss of about 120 billion cubic meters. m of the total LNG supply in the period 2026-2030, which is about 15% of the global growth in this period. Against this background, Europe is approaching the heating season with one of the lowest gas levels in recent years. EU storage capacity is 75% full, well below the 89.6% average over the past five years. At the same time, Germany, the largest economy in the European Union, found itself in the most vulnerable position: its underground gas storage facilities are only 61.7% full compared to the historical norm of 88.4%. For comparison: Poland, which diversified its supply, approached the heating season with 99.3% occupancy. The problem is not only the current prices, writes WSJ.