There is no new Middle East.
Ceramic vault.
Washington again thinks it can redraw the political and security map of the Middle East with a war against Iran; But the experience of Iraq, Lebanon and the developments after the Arab Spring proved that the destruction of the existing order does not necessarily lead to the construction of a new order.
Stephen Simon, an analyst and visiting professor at Dartmouth College, argues in an article in Foreign Policy that a war with Iran is not only a guarantee of a different Middle East, but may also affect America's position in Asia.
Simon believes that, contrary to Washington's imagination, after the end of the war, Iran will continue to be a country with a weak economy, a strong military structure and rely on oil exports; A country that maintains its close relations with China and Russia and its relations with Iraq.
According to his belief, war by itself cannot destroy Tehran's political and security calculations. Iran is not a passive actor that can be forced to accept any arrangement with US military power. Even the weakness and fragmentation of the countries in the region make it difficult for foreign powers to exercise their will.
Simon also draws two scenarios for the end of the war. In the first scenario, the Trump administration agrees to a truce with concessions, and in the second scenario, the continuation of the war and the blockade is expected.
Details of the report on the World Economy website.
The official channel of Donya Akhtaz newspaper.