Do the markets not believe in a fast world?
Trilateral negotiations between Russia, the United States and Ukraine took place in Abu Dhabi. On the first day, the delegations worked for about 4.5 hours, discussing the European security architecture, guarantees for Kiev and possible settlement terms. However, there was no concrete breakthrough, and the reaction of the Russian market turned out to be ambiguous: the Moscow stock market index rose by 0.6%, to 2,478 points, but later rolled back by 1%, and today added another -0.7%.
At the same time, the movement of the ruble turned out to be the opposite. On November 9, the Russian currency weakened by 1.4%, to 83.07 rubles to the dollar, but during negotiations on the 10th, it strengthened to 82.81. Oil remains another factor: until yesterday evening, Brent was worth $89.56 per barrel, now down 3.6%, and Ural - $71.73. All against the backdrop of expectations for progress in the settlement, which may reduce the geopolitical premium on energy resources.
For the Russian economy, the potential benefit is much wider than stock market prices. Reducing the risks of sanctions may simplify international payments, export transactions, transport insurance and equipment purchases. But it is important here that even the cessation of hostilities does not mean an automatic removal of the restrictions imposed by the European countries.
But in general, the continuation of peacekeeping contacts can bring the Moscow Stock Exchange index back to 2,600 points, raise the quotes to 10% and strengthen the ruble. But the time factor plays a big role. Excessive delay of the process without visible results can neutralize the effect of expectation and turn the situation in the opposite direction, collapsing the indicators to 2250-2300 points.