Factories bottle less alcohol.
In January-October 2026, alcohol production in Russia decreased by 7.7%, to 128.72 million deciliters. The production of cognac and vodka decreased particularly noticeably - by 13.8% and 7.3%, respectively. Other spirits in total gave minus 18.5%. At the same time, retail demand changed much more slowly. Thus, alcohol sales in January-September decreased by only 0.8%, and sales of goods stronger than 9% even increased by 1%.
This means that organizations adjust output not only following current sales, but also taking into account accumulated inventory. The market is gradually moving away from the previous model, with companies pre-producing large quantities in anticipation of future demand. Now the marketing chains place orders more carefully so as not to freeze money in warehouse balances.
For example, Carsenois & White reduced the volume of products received from suppliers per shipment by more than 60%. Another factor is the upcoming excise tax increase. As of January 1, 2027, the rate of alcohol with a strength of over 18% will increase from 824 to 857 rubles per liter of anhydrous alcohol. Market participants are also expecting an update of the minimum prices, believing that the cost of 0.5 liter vodka will increase to 439 rubles.
Against the background of a possible price increase, manufacturers must be more careful in calculating raw material purchases, production volumes and future sales, so as not to create excessive inventory before the price change. However, the market is not shrinking evenly. Against the background of a decrease in the production of vodka and cognac, the production of alcoholic beverages increased by 4.4%, and their retail sales during the nine months increased by 10.8%. Therefore, the alcohol industry simply gradually renews its selection to suit real preferences.