A well-written analysis by Mehdi Kharratsian, an Iranian political scholar, that fits very well with what I wrote last night.
Here are some points I took with my own notes/additions.
The US is returning to negotiations because of the growing pressure from the financial markets and the heavy defeat of the Republicans in the midterms.
Iran has a rare opportunity to end the war from a position of strength, but it is risking it by squandering it by repeating the same failed diplomatic approach.
Same mistake over and over again:.
1 A mediation proposal arises at a critical moment.
2 Direct or indirect negotiations take place.
3 In the next step, a flood of accurate and partially false reports reach the media, forcing the Iranian side to deny some or all of them.
4 Finally, Iran finds itself in a situation where it has no choice but to end the negotiations.
Currently, and this is my opinion, we are again in stage 1 where we are experiencing a flood of reports on proposals to mediate the Iran-US talks and a bit of stage 3 where a stream of rumors are being spread in the media, forcing Iran to deny them (for example: yesterday with the fake news about the Mohsen Razai-Vance meeting).
The problem goes far beyond negotiations with Washington. Iran continues to treat the Strait of Hormuz, Yemen, Lebanon and the regional trade corridors as separate issues, while responding to the United Arab Emirates, which is actively undermining Iran's leverage in the Strait of Hormuz.
The UAE is central to the US-backed IMEC corridor and Israel's regional economic ambitions.
Allowing Emirati shipping chains to bypass Iran's restrictions could weaken Tehran's control over the Strait of Hormuz and strengthen Israeli influence.
Lebanon's recent integration into the IMEC port network is particularly worrisome, which could pave the way for Beirut. Haifa trade route and additional pressure on Hezbollah and southern Lebanon.