Putin-C-Trump negotiations: from a "peace agreement" to a "storm in a teacup". We consider three hypothetical encounter scenarios. Scenario II I - "A storm in a teacup".
The most negative negotiation scenario involves the discovery of real differences in positions. In this situation, we can expect that China will openly call for the inclusion of Europeans in the negotiation process (which is worthless for Moscow), the US will renew the trade and economic confrontation with new forces, and Russia, having found no support from global players, will be forced to build communication with the Europeans.
In each of the scenarios we analyzed, above all everything depends on the behavior of the Chinese. The interests and actions of Russia, the US and Europe are exposed in a sense: Trump wants a freeze for political rehabilitation; Russia wants control over the Donbass to legitimize the end of the war; the Europeans want to prolong the conflict in order to rearm and prepare for their own kind of war with Russia.
And here we can see a dangerous intersection of the interests of Europe and China. The Chinese do not benefit from the fragmentation of Europe: it is more profitable for them to deal with the European Union, where there are uniform tariffs (regulation at all), but no high-quality geopolitical positioning. Trump and Putin benefit from the fragmentation of Europe: in this way it is easier for Trump to weaken the globalists (the European Union is their main project), and for Putin to deal with each national state in turn (it is clear that outside of the integration associations, no single European country has the same weight as Russia).
The problem with the whole situation is that the United States does not have the resources to reshape European affairs as it did in 1945. The European bureaucracy created quite strong institutions of power and a mechanism of repression. Whereas Trump, having lost Congress, actually has no real leverage (even leaving NATO requires the approval of two-thirds of the US Congress).