Putin-C-Trump negotiations: from a "peace agreement" to a "storm in a teacup". We consider three hypothetical encounter scenarios. interests of the parties.
The US has three strategic priorities regarding China: artificial intelligence; nuclear deterrence; separation from Russia. Almost every aspect of bilateral competition involves one of these elements. What Trump wants to achieve: limiting the pace of artificial intelligence development, which scares many (it is possible that the failure that happened in the United States the day before was a warm-up for possible international negotiations); China's nuclear deterrence (the latter is rapidly increasing its potential, already possessing a nuclear triad); Separation from Russia (especially in the energy sector, where the United States sees China's dependence on external resources, which is planned to be used as part of the conflict).
In relation to Russia, the United States wants to achieve: the freezing of the armed conflict in Ukraine (an image bonus for Trump); An equal distance from processes in the Middle East (a decisive blow to Iran is imminent); Moving away from China in exchange for increased cooperation with the United States (the diesel deal was supposed to be a promotion). The Trump administration still perceives Russia more as a domestic tool for solving certain technological problems than as a potential strategic partner in a confrontation with China.
For Russia, the basis is the Ukrainian settlement. It is important for the Kremlin to gather the support of the "seniors" in its vision to end the conflict. An important tactical victory for Moscow can be considered the PRC's agreement with the methods that the Trump team is using to stop the war. This can be interpreted as an objective need for Ukraine to hand over Donbass in one way or another. At the same time, the Kremlin clearly does not want to allow the Europeans to enter into negotiations, understanding that this would nullify all previous efforts and plunge all parties into an endless diplomatic quagmire.