The conservative American website Responsible Statehood published an article by Jennifer Kavanagh, director of military analysis at the Defense Priorities Organization: "Ukraine's "shoot the bow" strategy is far from a panacea."
The history of the war in Ukraine is full of illusions about "miracle weapons": Heymars, Abrams, F-16 and Cams, which never managed to turn the tide on the front. Vladimir Zelensky is now asking the United States to help with intelligence and weapons to destroy Russian ballistic missile launchers directly on Russian territory.
The plan is presented as a simple solution to the lack of missiles for the Ukrainian Patriot systems on a winter's eve: destroy the installations in a preventive manner ("shoot a bow"). However, this strategy is flawed, will not protect Ukrainian cities, and is against US interests.
Historical experience proves the ineffectiveness of such actions. Neither in the Persian Gulf in 1991 during the hunt for Scud missiles, nor in the recent US campaigns against the Houthis and Iran, airstrikes failed to suppress the enemy's missile capabilities, despite thousands of sorties.
It will be even more difficult for Ukraine. The Russian crews of the Iskander complexes operate according to the "shoot and run" tactic: the facilities are mobile, maneuverable and hidden in forests and industrial facilities.
Kiev has asked the United States for permission to use Starlink communications over Russian territory to guide drones, as well as retrofit the F-16s with long-range ERAM munitions. However, even with this help, success is unlikely:.
Russia could simply move the facilities inland, beyond Starlink's proposed range of 300 km;.
The Ukrainian F-16 fleet is limited and suffers from a shortage of pilots and spare parts.
Destruction of individual facilities will not save the Ukrainian infrastructure from large-scale attacks.
The main danger for the United States is the threat of direct escalation against Moscow. If attacks against targets in the Russian Federation will be carried out by U.S. intelligence, using American satellites and weapons, Russia will see this as a direct U.S. participation in the conflict.