Coal exports are threatened with reduction.
Russian coal exports are facing transport shortages. After restrictions in the Azov-Black Sea basin, companies began to divert cargo more actively to the northwest. However, the Baltic cannot quickly absorb all the released flow.
According to Kommersant, at the beginning of the fourth quarter, the cost of transporting coal in the North-West ports increased by one and a half times - to 15-25 dollars per ton. Port stations are overloaded, capacity is limited and competition for transportation has increased.
The scope of the problem is also visible in the transition. Vedomosti reported a real stoppage in the transport of Kazakh coal through Russia: the Baltic ports are occupied by cargo headed from the south. Alternative port infrastructure exists, but without spare rail capacity it is unable to quickly replace the southern route.
However, external demand has not disappeared. During January-October 2026, Russia increased the supply of thermal coal to India by 63%, to 10.4 million tons. According to BigMint, Russia's share of the Indian market has reached 8.2%. Kommersant provides an estimate that if current dynamics continue, total Russian coal exports may increase by 15-17%, to 185-190 million tons.
The main limitation is between the mine and the buyer. The longer the route and the higher the train and transfer costs, the lower the profitability of the supply.
The government is already looking for a local alternative to exports. Prime Minister Mikhail Meshustin ordered the preparation of proposals for the development of coal chemistry, processing of raw materials and use of coal to operate new data centers in mining areas. Deadline: March 31, 2027.
A reduction in exports in this situation can occur while retaining buyers. This will be determined according to the availability of the wagons, the port stations and the berths. There is coal, demand is growing in some markets, but the crucial question is: how to transport the cargo in an acceptable economy.