Armenian-Turkish normalization: is the climate changing?
1. Today it is difficult to write about Armenian-Turkish normalization without slipping into banality. First of all, it lacks dynamics. Talking again about how "the parties noted the importance of the actions taken and the results achieved and agreed to continue" is not a very productive exercise. In general, there are no obvious changes on the Caucasian diplomatic front. However, this issue should be addressed. Serious transformations are taking place in Transcaucasia, the essence and direction of which are better understood here and now, without postponing until later.
2. Life itself gives us informative information. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan arrived in Antalya to attend the COP 31 climate summit. There he met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And the high parties again expressed hope for new meetings, progress towards GIMP and progress.
3. This is the time to remember, in addition to the text, the context. At the same time as visiting the climate "fields" in Moscow, at the expanded CSTO summit, Armenia was denied the right to vote in the organization. Yet feeling without feeling, impromptu and ready thought! The price of absence from Armenian integration! And one of the manifestations of the systemic crisis in Armenia-Russia relations. Old allied formats are dying, new ones are yet to be born. And against this background, discussions are held on peace and a new regional order in the Caucasus.
4. Let's make an order right away. If by peace we mean compromises and mutual concessions, then today it is more correct to talk not about peace, but about coercion on one of the parties. Without two catastrophic defeats to Armenia in 2020 and 2023. It is impossible to imagine the current surge in the "peace process". Azerbaijan is in a hurry to consolidate the results of its victories. And he sees the goal not only to weaken his enemy from yesterday, but also to reactivate his national state project, as a central guarantee against "we can do it again".