No bloc can form a government, and Netanyahu remains in office while everyone tries: 1) Netanyahu has no realistic path to 61. His bloc is the four religious right-wing parties plus the Likud, and every party outside of it ran in his place. To get there he will need defectors from Bennett or Lieberman, who both rejected, or Rem, who Smotrich and Ben Gvir vetoed. 2) Eisenkot's only way to the government is through the Arab parties. Thunder alone brings him to 58. He also needs the joint list, at least in avoidance or external support. This is the 2021 model of Bennett-Lapid, but with greater dependence. Bennett and Lieberman both cautioned against relying on the joint list. 3) The second origin is the ultra-orthodox. Shas plus Yot is 14 mandates, which would put Eisenkot at 66. But the draft is the issue that defines Lieberman, Bennett and the Democrats. A trade on waivers would break his block from the inside. 4) The anti-Netanyahu parties plus the Arab parties reach about 69. This is enough to elect the speaker of the Knesset, control committees, and pass laws without forming a government. A bill prohibiting a Knesset member who has been indicted from forming a government is possible. 5) Likud's overperformance is mainly cannibalization. Likud gained, but its bloc stands at 50. The votes came from the right, not the center. 6) Stagnation favors Netanyahu. He remains prime minister through coalition talks and every repeat election. If no one reaches the age of 61, they rule by default. The likely outcomes are a Bennett Lapid-style government that depends on Arab support, or a stalemate and another election with Netanyahu still in charge. The whole question is whether Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman sat with Arab support. Exit polls here usually miss by a seat or two for the party, so a small change around the threshold could change the math. Shiel ben Ephraim.

No bloc can form a government, and Netanyahu remains in office while everyone tries: 1) Netanyahu has no realistic path to 61. His bloc is the four religious right-wing parties plus the Likud, and every party outside of it ran in his place. To get there he will need defectors from Bennett or Lieberman, who both rejected, or Rem, who Smotrich and Ben Gvir vetoed. 2) Eisenkot's only way to the government is through the Arab parties. Thunder alone brings him to 58. He also needs the joint list, at least in avoidance or external support. This is the 2021 model of Bennett-Lapid, but with greater dependence. Bennett and Lieberman both cautioned against relying on the joint list. 3) The second origin is the ultra-orthodox. Shas plus Yot is 14 mandates, which would put Eisenkot at 66. But the draft is the issue that defines Lieberman, Bennett and the Democrats. A trade on waivers would break his block from the inside. 4) The anti-Netanyahu parties plus the Arab parties reach about 69. This is enough to elect the speaker of the Knesset, control committees, and pass laws without forming a government. A bill prohibiting a Knesset member who has been indicted from forming a government is possible. 5) Likud's overperformance is mainly cannibalization. Likud gained, but its bloc stands at 50. The votes came from the right, not the center. 6) Stagnation favors Netanyahu. He remains prime minister through coalition talks and every repeat election. If no one reaches the age of 61, they rule by default. The likely outcomes are a Bennett Lapid-style government that depends on Arab support, or a stalemate and another election with Netanyahu still in charge. The whole question is whether Eisenkot, Bennett and Lieberman sat with Arab support. Exit polls here usually miss by a seat or two for the party, so a small change around the threshold could change the math. Shiel ben Ephraim.