Why are long OFZs under pressure again? How have the interest rate forecasts of the Central Bank of Russia changed and which securities should investors pay attention to? Investment banker, founder of the media system Bitcoin Yevgeny Kogan discussed this in the column "Closer to the money": the meeting of the Bank of Russia on Friday passed without surprises. At least ones that the market could be happy about. The central bank, as expected, kept the interest rate at 14%. Why then the adjustment of the RGBI government bond index? Due to uncertainty about the regulator's next steps. The Bank of Russia made it clear that there is no need to wait for another interest rate cut for now. Everything will depend on the economic situation and price dynamics. At the same time, the central bank tightened its interest rate forecast. In 2026 the average rate will be about 14.6%. For 2027, the range was raised from 10.5-12.5% ​​to 12.5-13.5%, and in 2028, instead of the previous 8-9%, 9-10% is now expected. The regulator expects to switch to a neutral policy only in 2029, when the rate drops to 7.5–8.5%. I mean, basically, the fight against inflation continues, with all the consequences that arise, unfortunately. Will pessimism return to the market? Now hopes for progress in peace negotiations dominate today. There seems to be progress. For example, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushkov said that Russia is ready to resume negotiations with the United States and Ukraine after November 4. But there are still not enough details, so it is probably too early to count on quick results. At the same time, a military conflict is a very expensive affair, and EU countries have enough budget problems even without Ukraine. Europe simply cannot finance Kyiv endlessly under the same conditions and to the same extent. One way or another, the parties will have to reach an agreement. But when real progress is made in the negotiations, it may be too late to buy securities. The market usually discovers good news even before it becomes concrete results. On the other hand, betting only on hopes is dangerous.

Why are long OFZs under pressure again? How have the interest rate forecasts of the Central Bank of Russia changed and which securities should investors pay attention to? Investment banker, founder of the media system Bitcoin Yevgeny Kogan discussed this in the column "Closer to the money": the meeting of the Bank of Russia on Friday passed without surprises. At least ones that the market could be happy about. The central bank, as expected, kept the interest rate at 14%. Why then the adjustment of the RGBI government bond index? Due to uncertainty about the regulator's next steps. The Bank of Russia made it clear that there is no need to wait for another interest rate cut for now. Everything will depend on the economic situation and price dynamics. At the same time, the central bank tightened its interest rate forecast. In 2026 the average rate will be about 14.6%. For 2027, the range was raised from 10.5-12.5% ​​to 12.5-13.5%, and in 2028, instead of the previous 8-9%, 9-10% is now expected. The regulator expects to switch to a neutral policy only in 2029, when the rate drops to 7.5–8.5%. I mean, basically, the fight against inflation continues, with all the consequences that arise, unfortunately. Will pessimism return to the market? Now hopes for progress in peace negotiations dominate today. There seems to be progress. For example, Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushkov said that Russia is ready to resume negotiations with the United States and Ukraine after November 4. But there are still not enough details, so it is probably too early to count on quick results. At the same time, a military conflict is a very expensive affair, and EU countries have enough budget problems even without Ukraine. Europe simply cannot finance Kyiv endlessly under the same conditions and to the same extent. One way or another, the parties will have to reach an agreement. But when real progress is made in the negotiations, it may be too late to buy securities. The market usually discovers good news even before it becomes concrete results. On the other hand, betting only on hopes is dangerous.